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NOVEMBER 9,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT.   OUR TIME HAS BEEN TAKEN UP WITH MONITORING THE POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE.  WE'LL BE RUNNING ITEMS ON THAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REMEMBER THEM STATES? – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:  Almost overlooked in the presidential clap of thunder is the fact that the Republicans picked up three governorships last night.  From the Washington Times: 

DENVER | Republicans built on their gubernatorial and legislative dominance in Tuesday’s elections, shrugging off an onslaught of Democratic spending to flip three governors’ seats.

Buoyed by the political wave created by Republican President-elect Donald Trump and dissatisfaction with rising health care costs under Obamacare, GOP candidates wrested control of gubernatorial seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Those victories raised the party’s total from 31 to 33, the largest number of GOP governors since 1922, according to the Republican Governors Association.

The Republicans’ big night came even though Democrats, who have vowed to reverse their decline in the states, outspent the GOP by $2.5 million in television ads, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis.

Four years ago, Republican candidates and committees outspent Democrats by $20 million in state contests.

“In a stunning night for Democrats on the national stage, these additional losses pushed the party further into the political wilderness in the states, where they have been struggling to compete for years,” the Center for Public Integrity said Wednesday.

COMMENTS:  The Dems are in a bad way.  Really.  They've lost the presidency, the Senate, the House, most governorships and most state legislatures.  But, despite this, they bravely move forward with non-gendered restrooms.

November 9, 2016       Permalink

BRAGGING RIGHTS – AT 9:42 P.M. ET:  Okay, the big statistical question:  Which pollster, if any, got it right last night?  Not too many pollsters are saying much about their work.  One is, and for good reason.  From IBD:

Excuse us, but not everyone got it wrong.

IBD/TIPP's final numbers put Trump up by 1.6 points in a four-way race. As of 2 a.m. Wednesday morning, Trump was up by about 1 point in the popular vote. (The actual vote outcome will likely change as votes continue to be counted over the next several weeks.)

Not one other national poll had Trump winning in four-way polls. In fact, they all had Clinton winning by 3 or more points. For the entire run of the IBD/TIPP poll, we showed the race as being far tighter than other polls. This isn't a fluke. This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right.

The Los Angeles Times, which had employed a panel of people who were queried about their choice (and which had been ridiculed throughout the election) showed Trump up in a two-way race by 3 points.

In the final poll, Raghavan Mayur, president of IBD's polling partner Technometrica Market Intelligence, said he saw more enthusiasm for Republicans and independents. He said Republican turnout would equal Democratic turnout, despite the Democratic party's registration advantage. That appears to be the case. He said independents were breaking for Trump. That also appears to be the case.

We will have more to say about this later. But for now, we are happy to say that, according to preliminary results, IBD/TIPP has now had the most accurate presidential poll four elections in a row.

COMMENT:   Can't dispute that.  Readers will recall that IBD/TIPP was one of the three polls we quoted each day in the final weeks of the campaign, the others being L.A. Times and Rasmussen.  IBD/TIPP's record is unmatched.

November 9, 2016        Permalink

MODO ON WHAT HAPPENED – AT 7:03 P.M. ET:   I've been searching for the best pieces written on yesterday's monumental election.  One is by Maureen Dowd of The New York Times.  I don't normally agree with her, but when she's good, she can be very, very good.  From her: 

The Republican establishment couldn’t stand Trump. The Democratic establishment mocked him. The Republican nominee didn’t even really seem to have much of a campaign. He spent more on “Make America Great” hats than on polling. When I visited his campaign headquarters this summer, there were more pictures, paintings and cardboard cutouts of Trump around than Trump advisers. If you don’t count Newt Gingrich — and I don’t — only one major political historian, Allan Lichtman, had predicted that Trump would win.

But then the impossible happened. As Salena Zito had presciently written in The Atlantic: “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

Absolutely terrific line.  Quote it to people.  It defines exactly what happened.  Salena Zito is a conservative commentator from Pittsburgh. Maureeen quotes her conservative brother, Kevin:

“She is a weak campaigner with a documented history of unsavory dealings,” Kevin wrote in an essay for my new book, “The Year of Voting Dangerously.” “She is declared unlikable by 55 percent of the electorate and untrustworthy by 67 percent. ... When the director of the F.B.I. laid bare her gross negligence for arrogantly setting up her own email system while secretary of state and announced there would be no prosecution, you could hear the heavens thunder for justice. Not since O.J. Simpson had someone so obviously guilty by the facts, walked away.

Yesterday's Trump victory reminds us of the Chinese notion of a thousand cuts.  It was one thing after the other that angered the American people.

“With Brexit, the markets went down and bounced right back,” Kevin mused at 3 a.m., sounding serene as Democrats keened and Hillary failed to show up at her party at the Javits Center. “Trump voters did the country a service. Anybody but Clinton.

“The Clintons remind me of the Universal horror movies where you thought the monster was dead and then the monster would show up in a bad sequel. I’m glad now that they’re finally gone.”

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  Well worth it.  We'll be trying to understand this election for years to come.  Trump detected something that many of us never saw coming.

November 9, 2016       Permalink

7:02 P.M. ET:  Republicans have lost a second Senate seat.  In New Hampshire, Senator Kelly Ayotte has conceded to Democrat Maggie Hassan.  However, Republicans still control the Senate.  The fact that their losses were held to two seats is almost miraculous.

12:29 P.M. ET:   President Obama delivered a reasonably gracious response to the election of Donald Trump, pledging full cooperation during the transition.  The two could not possibly like each other, as Trump was originally a birther and Obama has been going around the country charging that Trump is unqualified to be president.  But each man has pledged civility and cooperation, at least during the period leading up to the inauguration.  After that, all hell will break loose.

11:58 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton has just delivered a gracious, humble concession speech, probably the best speech she's ever given.  If she'd spoken this way during her campaign, the result might have been different.

One thing she did not say, and which must be said by Democrats, is that their party has made serious mistakes, primarily in losing contact with the American people.  Ronald Reagan, originally a Democrat, said that he hadn't left the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party had left him.  We have a repeat of that today, embodied in Donald Trump's resurrection of an old FDR theme – the forgotten man.  Democrats lost touch with the very people they claimed to represent.  And it's happened again.

COUNTDOWN – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump will be inaugurated two months and eleven days from now.

In a short while, Hillary Clinton will deliver her concession speech.  Trump's acceptance speech, made in the early hours of the morning, is being widely praised for its graciousness.  I suspect Clinton will try to strike the same note. 

Paul Ryan is speaking right now.  I will go watch.  Urgent Agenda today will be more informal because I must do a great deal of reading, watching, and listening, in response to the breathtaking political revolution we've just seen.

Be back soon...

November 9, 2016     Permalink

NOVEMBER 8,  2016

3:09 A.M. ET:  IT IS OVER.  DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE END CAME WHEN HILLARY CLINTON GRACIOUSLY CALLED TRUMP TO CONCEDE THE ELECTION.  TRUMP HAS JUST SPOKEN TO HIS SUPPORTERS AT HIS NEW YORK HEADQUARTERS, DELIVERING A FINE, ELEGANT SPEECH OF ACCEPTANCE.

IT IS HARD TO EXAGGERATE THE IMPORTANCE OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED.  THIS IS A POLITICAL REVOLUTION, ENTIRELY UNEXPECTED BY THE PUNDITOCRACY. 

I'M SIGNING OFF.  MORE IN THE MORNING.

12:56 A.M. ET:  We reported earlier that Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania appeared to be in trouble in the vote count.  Some good news:  With 96% of the vote in, Toomey is leading his opponent, Katie McGinty, 49-47%.  We hope it continues.  Dems have picked up only one seat in the Senate so far. 

No news on the presidential race.  We may not know the outcome tonight.   Many commentators are talking as if Trump has won, but I'll believe it when I see the number 270 next to his name.  Not a second before.

12:32 A.M. ET:  Fox has called Nevada for Clinton, and Clinton has just moved ahead in New Hampshire.  Again, I caution readers:  This is not over.  The folks at Fox, who have Trump at 254 electoral votes, 16 shy of victory, are the most aggressive in suggesting that he will win.  Other networks have Trump in the 240s.  Hillary Clinton can still win some major states and pull a come-from-behind victory.  So we'll wait before making grand declarations.

EXPLANATION:  Our 11:37 note, just below, is based on Fox projections.  Indeed, Fox has just increased Trump's projected electoral vote total to 254, with Clinton at 209.  Please be aware that CNN is much more conservative in its projections, projecting Trump at 216.  Both networks have Clinton at 209.

BULLETIN – AT 11:37 P.M. ET:  Fox News projects that Trump wins Wisconsin and Iowa, bringing his electoral vote to 238.  He is 32 electoral votes away from the presidency, but it's a big 32 votes.  Pennsylvania and Michigan are still undecided.  She is at 209 electoral votes.  If she wins both those states, she'll have 245 electoral votes.  It is not over.

11:28 P.M. ET:  We want to stress to readers that this race is far from over.  Hillary Clinton has just tied the vote count in Michigan.  The Trump people are justifiably pumped (or trumped), but anything can still happen.  The key point is that Trump is standing, with some realistic routes to 270 electoral votes, something most observers had not expected at this hour.  But Clinton is also standing, and also has some routes open. 

Republicans have, thus far, done well in defending Senate seats.  However, Pat Toomey is in serious trouble in the Pennsylvania count.  I'd hate to see him lose, but it may well happen.  Stand by.

BULLETIN – AT 11:03 P.M. ET:  Trump wins Florida!!  He now has a path to the presidency, but it is not guaranteed.  Fox is reporting that the Clinton people now expect a "long" night.   Ya think? 

BULLETIN – AT 10:52 P.M. ET:  Trump wins North Carolina.  There is a sense of shock among many journalists.  Is it possible that Trump will go all the way?

Florida still has not been called, but Trump is leading.  If he can hold Florida, he has a real shot at the presidency, but even then it will  not be certain.  Remember to call in sick tomorrow.

BULLETIN – AT 10:28 P.M. ET:  Trump wins Ohio.  Clinton wins Colorado.   The race is far from over, but neither presidential candidate has been knocked out.  Incredible contest.

Florida has still not been called.  If Trump wins, he's still in it, big time.  If he loses Florida, his dream dims.  Stand by.  Stay up.  Call in sick tomorrow.

10:14 P.M. ET:  Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has won his close race for re-election, depriving the Dems of one more hoped-for pickup.  The Democrats have won only a single Senate pickup thus far tonight, but will probably win several more. 

Virginia has been called for Hillary Clinton, which was expected.  But she won by a far more narrow margin than predicted.  The presidency is still open.  So is control of the Senate. 

9:24 P.M. ET:  Incredible.  Not one swing state has been called.  And even Virginia is in play.  You're watching the same coverage I am, and we're preparing for a late night.  And Dems have still picked up only one Senate seat.  The GOP majority in the House is safe.  I wish I had more to say, but I don't.

8:32 P.M. ET:  Everyone is looking at Florida, which is very tight.  Trump is slightly ahead, and Clinton is slightly ahead in North Carolina.  But neither state can be called.  Just as important, Marco Rubio has been re-elected to the Senate from Florida, depriving Democrats of a hoped-for pickup.  And in Indiana, former Democratic Senator and Governor Evan Bayh was defeated by Republican Todd Young, allowing the GOP to keep the seat being vacated by Dan Coates.  Republicans lost the Illinois Senator seat held by Mark Kirk.  So far that is the only Senate gain for the Dems, but they're likely to have more tonight.

THE VERDICT:  It's 7:43 p.m. ET, we are watching the early returns, and have very little to say.  Much to soon to make grand predictions.  We congratulate Rob Portman for his re-election to the Senate from Ohio.  His decisive victory puts him on the list of potential presidential candidates.  The polls close in 17 minutes in 16 states, including Florida and Pennsylvania.  Stand by.

November 8, 2016       Permalink

SHE'S BACK ALREADY? – AT 11:44 A.M. ET:  There's really not much to report today unless you want us to describe how lines of voters are going to the polls.  So we're just preparing for the vote count and looking for interesting little tidbits. 

And here's one.  Like the old Soviets, Hillary Clinton knows how to banish people when they're embarrassing, and rehabilitate them when convenient.  Consider one Huma Abedin.  From the New York Post:   

Hillary Clinton ended her final campaign rally with her embattled top aide, Huma Abedin, at her side.

Abedin was spotted for the first time in nearly a week boarding Clinton’s “Stronger Together” plane after a rally in Philadelphia on Monday, Politico reported.

The estranged wife of Anthony Weiner had been missing from the Democratic presidential nominee’s side since the FBI notified lawmakers more than a week-and-a-half ago that new evidence had been found in their investigation of Clinton’s emails.

The evidence was a trove of reportedly 650,000 emails that was found on Weiner’s laptop — which apparently was shared by Abedin.

Weiner, who was exclusively spotted by The Post during an equine therapy session at a sex addiction rehab center in Tennessee, is himself under investigation for sexting with a 15-year-old girl.

COMMENT:  A little taste of what's to come, if Hillary makes it.  Back to the nineties.

November 8, 2016       Permalink

WHAT A NEW PRESIDENT WILL INHERIT – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  There is unhappiness in America, and for good reason.  From CNS: 

(CNSNews.com) - The United States lost 9,000 manufacturing jobs in October while gaining 19,000 jobs in government, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Government employment grew from 22,216,000 in September to 22,235,000 in October, according to BLS, while manufacturing jobs dropped from 12,267,000 to 12,258,000.

The 22,235,000 employed by government in the United States now outnumber the 12,258,000 employed in manufacturing by 9,977,000.

Over the past year—from October 2015 to October 2016—manufacturing employment fell by 53,000, declining from 12,311,000 to 12,258,000. During the same period, government employment climbed 208,000, rising from 22,027,000 to 22,235,000.

COMMENT:  I don't think the major news organizations have noticed how good jobs, outside government, have disappeared in this country.  And I don't think they care.  Those workers aren't their people.  But when you think about the kind of large-scale manufacturing this country once had, the current situation looks pathetic, and dangerous. 

That was a big part of Trump's message.  He hasn't been the best messenger, but the underlying issues won't go away.

November 8, 2016       Permalink

ELECTION DAY –  AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  The RealClearPolitics average of polls, final edition for 2016, shows Hillary Clinton up 3.2 percent in a two-way race, 3.3 in a four-way race.   That's a dramatic gain from the under-two-percent leads she was averaging last week, but please note that it is based on the final reporting of some mainstream-media polls that tend to tip Democratic.

The RealClearPolitics final projection of electoral votes is more "iffy."  RCP projects 203 solid for Clinton, 164 for Trump.  That's with tossups excluded.  It takes 270 to win.  When tossups are assigned, based on where they seem to be heading, Clinton has 272, Trump 266.  That, my friends, is a close election.  A switch of one or two states could make Trump president.

It's widely expected that the GOP will retain the House, but might lose a small number of seats, reducing its huge majority.  The Senate is up for grabs.  Larry Sabato projects a 50-50 Senate, which means the vice president would break the tie.  Either Kaine or Pence. 

There is a great sense of uncertainty this election day.  Pollsters wonder whether their traditional models will hold in the age of Trump.  Others worry about a brooding anger on the part of the American people.  And any thoughtful journalist has to be concerned about the loss of confidence in the mainstream media.

We'll know the truth tonight...I think.

November 8,  2016     Permalink